2026 Outlook Powerful trends on the horizon

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Influential forces are shaping this year’s investment landscape – from government policy tailwinds to global trade uncertainty and artificial intelligence’s hopeful march toward efficiency. The global economy appears likely to improve in 2026, and this year’s investment opportunities may not be the same as last year’s. Explore our 2026 Outlook for insight into the macroeconomic picture and our five investment ideas to help you and your clients navigate the current environment, with an eye on the horizon.

Macroeconomic outlook

Fiscal and monetary stimulus is a tailwind

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Trade uncertainty and inflation risks may improve

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AI should continue to boost the economy

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The boost to consumers and corporates could help broaden market leadership beyond mega-caps.

The tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) should disproportionately help the US middle class, in turn accelerating consumer spending growth. Separately, the OBBBA's lowered corporate tax payments should encourage research and development and capital spending into 2026.

Europe and Japan have plans to increase fiscal stimulus. With EU countries benefiting from Recovery and Resilience Facility funds and Japan’s rising wages supporting consumer spending, the opportunity for economic growth is prime. Further, improving global momentum and low rates should be positive for emerging market economies.

Share of consumer spending, by income cohort

Share of consumer spending, by income cohort chart

Sources: Nomura Asset Management, Macrobond, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Data as of December 31, 2024.

As markets shrug off tariff volatility, inflation appears relatively stable.

Even though tariffs remain a headwind, and additional tariffs seem likely, the peak drag on the US economy has passed. While inflation may ease some, it is unlikely to fall to the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

The European economy was generally sluggish in 2025, with US tariff policy driving weaker exports, while capital expenditures (capex) remained soft. Inflation is likely to remain near the European Central Bank’s 2% target, and we expect interest rates to remain unchanged in 2026. In Japan, exports should improve thanks to a stronger global economy following the temporary frontloading of Japanese-goods activity ahead of US tariffs.

Incremental tariff cost on the US economy, by quarter

Incremental tariff cost on the US economy, by quarter chart

Sources: Nomura Asset Management, Macrobond, US Department of the Treasury, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Data as of December 31, 2025.

As AI-related corporate spending continues, many await the promised productivity gains from AI.

US productivity growth has risen from the post-global financial crisis slowdown but remains muted relative to history, with the hope of increased corporate efficiency from AI waiting in the wings. Deteriorating population trends in much of the developed world and parts of emerging markets highlight how important improvements in productivity growth will be.

Job losses from AI are likely, and though workers tend to adjust over time by learning new skills, the adjustment could be bumpy. As workers and companies create synergies through AI, profitability should follow, ultimately boosting economy-wide productivity.

US productivity, annual growth by decade

US productivity, annual growth by decade chart

Sources: Nomura Asset Management, Macrobond, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). *2020s data through 2Q 2025.

5 investment ideas for 2026

Diversify outside the US

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Seize the moment to lock in income

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Focus on quality in the age of AI

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Broaden equity exposure beyond mega-caps

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Enhance yield with private credit

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2026 Outlook webcast

Hear from our panel of investment experts as they discuss actionable investing ideas that can help investors navigate public and private markets.

January 21, 2026

1:00pm EST | 10:00am PST

Watch the replay

A message from our client team

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We’re incredibly excited to bring you our first annual outlook as Nomura Asset Management. Designed with advisors and clients in mind, it's focused on navigating the year ahead with clarity and confidence - across both public and private markets."

Milissa Hutchinson photo

Milissa Hutchinson

Head of US Wealth

Contributors

Derek Hamilton photo

Derek Hamilton

Economist
Linda Bakhshian photo

Linda Bakhshian

Deputy Head of Equities & Multi-Asset
Greg Gizzi photo

Greg Gizzi

Head of Fixed Income and Municipal Bonds
Matthew Pallai photo

Matthew Pallai

CIO of Private Credit

Have questions? —

Contact us. Call 877 693 3546 or contact your regional director.

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[5071128 – 01/26]

International investments entail risks including fluctuation in currency values, differences in accounting principles, or economic or political instability. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in established foreign markets due to increased volatility, lower trading volume, and higher risk of market closures. In many emerging markets, there is substantially less publicly available information and the available information may be incomplete or misleading. Legal claims are generally more difficult to pursue.

Investments in small and/or mid-cap companies may be more volatile than those of larger companies.